Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

76.32 – 34.83

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

90 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 13.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 154.4 ±19.6

11351LYNTECH - Fresnillo PLC

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 30.15Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4401CETMOV - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 20.67Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6199E-Hawks - Peñoles

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 25.5Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 144 ±20.2

10562STEAMex Scorpions

Provisional

Season APEX 53.9Event APEX -7.77Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4355Samurai Code - Peñoles - John Deere

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 31.83Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11040Aria STEAMex

Provisional

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 10.77Rank 46Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11351, 4401, 6199

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 11351, 4401, 6199

Auto

16.0 23%

Teleop

34.4 49%

Endgame

19.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10562, 4355, 11040

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10562, 4355, 11040

Auto

9.0 26%

Teleop

27.2 80%

Endgame

-2.1 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score76.3pts

Blue projected score34.8pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.5
Score range: 12–99
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 139 vs event baseline 129.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

154.4Season APEX144

16Auto9

34.4Teleop27.2

19.2Endgame-2.1

36Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	13
teleop	59	17
endgame	20	4
foul	0	15
total	90	49

Result

Final score

90 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 13.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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