Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.65 – 114.05

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

115 – 110

Prediction missed · off by 24.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 230.6 ±15.8

5705DESERT EAGLES - JOHN DEERE

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX -0.48Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3527PrepaTec - Balam Esmeralda

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 52.82Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4735Prepa Tecmilenio - DEROF - Peñoles

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 18.31Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 250.6 ±16

5874Prepa Tecmilenio BorderBots

Provisional

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX 6.82Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9134Tecmilenio - DEVOLT

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 97.17Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5526Type C - Peñoles

Season APEX 77.4Event APEX 10.06Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5705, 3527, 4735

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5705, 3527, 4735

Auto

16.8 24%

Teleop

38.2 55%

Endgame

14.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5874, 9134, 5526

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5874, 9134, 5526

Auto

20.2 18%

Teleop

59.9 53%

Endgame

32.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score70.7pts

Blue projected score114.1pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.4
Score range: 48–137
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 225 vs event baseline 130.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

230.6Season APEX250.6

16.8Auto20.2

38.2Teleop59.9

14.7Endgame32.5

18Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	25
teleop	26	72
endgame	37	13
foul	30	0
total	115	110

Result

Final score

115 – 110

Prediction missed · off by 24.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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