Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

26.79 – 42.89

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

12 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 9.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 86.6 ±19.2

7018EOLOTICS - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 10Event APEX -2.76Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8105Apollo Black Cat - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 37.2Event APEX 9.33Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8290Jaegers60 - Peñoles

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 20.22Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 153.1 ±19.7

5874Prepa Tecmilenio BorderBots

Provisional

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX 7.96Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9513Circuit Crew 9513 - Caterpillar

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 5.27Rank 28Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 80

4401CETMOV - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 29.66Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7018, 8105, 8290

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7018, 8105, 8290

Auto

4.1 17%

Teleop

3.5 15%

Endgame

16.0 68%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5874, 9513, 4401

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5874, 9513, 4401

Auto

17.9 42%

Teleop

18.0 42%

Endgame

6.8 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score26.8pts

Blue projected score42.9pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.1
Score range: 0–70
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 59 vs event baseline 147.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

86.6Season APEX153.1

4.1Auto17.9

3.5Teleop18

16Endgame6.8

32Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	3	13
teleop	3	29
endgame	6	5
foul	0	0
total	12	47

Result

Final score

12 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 9.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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