Qualification · Qualification 49
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
403.7 – 177.8
94%6%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
473 – 203
Prediction correct · off by 47.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 660.3 ±13.5
Season APEX 122.5Event APEX 78.21Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77
Season APEX 267.2Event APEX 174.73Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 270.6Event APEX 150.76Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 348.8 ±18
Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 131.24Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
8293Prepa Tecmilenio - Startech
Provisional
Season APEX 32.6Event APEX 10.94Rank 40Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73
9499KANARITECH - FRESNILLO PLC
Provisional
Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 35.62Rank 18Record 5-4-1Status provisionalConfidence 74
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5716, 6647, 4400
80
/ 100 compatProjected
403.7 pts
~2.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 5716, 6647, 4400
Auto
62.9 16%
Teleop
240.7 61%
Endgame
92.1 23%
Strengths
- · 6647 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 59%
Supercharged: 7%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4403, 8293, 9499
77
/ 100 compatProjected
177.8 pts
~0.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 4403, 8293, 9499
Auto
27.3 16%
Teleop
106.3 61%
Endgame
40.8 23%
Strengths
- · 4403 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 59%
Supercharged: 7%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.56 · Blue 0.59
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score403.7pts
Blue projected score177.8pts
Red win probability94%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 59%, blue 44%
Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 225.9
- Score range
- 155–427
- Upset likelihood
- 6%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
660.3Season APEX348.8
62.9Auto27.3
240.7Teleop106.3
92.1Endgame40.8
38Consistency72
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 41 | 36 |
| teleop | 311 | 94 |
| endgame | 121 | 73 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 473 | 203 |
Result
Final score
473 – 203
Prediction correct · off by 47.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
Watch right here, no need to leave the page.