Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

157.57 – 29.16

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

222 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 32.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 266.6 ±15.2

9513Circuit Crew 9513 - Caterpillar

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 23.85Rank 28Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 80

9593Rhinos

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 16.01Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3158PrepaTec - TECBOT

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 117.71Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 288.3 ±18.8

7018EOLOTICS - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 10Event APEX -3.84Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7577VELABOTS - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 32.1Event APEX 32.92Rank 41Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11304Meowbotics - Fresnillo PLC

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 0.08Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9513, 9593, 3158

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.6 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9513, 9593, 3158

Auto

28.3 18%

Teleop

97.6 63%

Endgame

28.4 18%

Strengths

· 3158 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7018, 7577, 11304

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.2 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7018, 7577, 11304

Auto

6.0 27%

Teleop

8.2 36%

Endgame

8.3 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.15 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score157.6pts

Blue projected score29.2pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 128.4
Score range: 6–181
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 250 vs event baseline 127.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

266.6Season APEX288.3

28.3Auto6

97.6Teleop8.2

28.4Endgame8.3

45Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	8
teleop	133	11
endgame	54	9
foul	0	0
total	222	28

Result

Final score

222 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 32.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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