Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

227.09 – 106.31

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

360 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 71.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 534.3 ±16.5

5948PrepaTec - Lebotics

Season APEX 338.5Event APEX 115.37Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6483Prepa Tecmilenio - CHARGER

Provisional

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX -3.49Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9301PrepaTec - MechRams

Season APEX 134.6Event APEX 115.21Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 176.7 ±17

7687Corcebots - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 19.61Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8290Jaegers60 - Peñoles

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 11.33Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

3526PrepaTec - Blue Ignition

Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 75.37Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5948, 6483, 9301

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.1 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 5948, 6483, 9301

Auto

31.4 14%

Teleop

140.1 61%

Endgame

58.3 25%

Strengths

· 5948 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7687, 8290, 3526

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.3 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7687, 8290, 3526

Auto

23.2 22%

Teleop

67.6 63%

Endgame

15.8 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score227.1pts

Blue projected score106.3pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 120.8
Score range: 83–250
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 456 vs event baseline 125.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

534.3Season APEX176.7

31.4Auto23.2

140.1Teleop67.6

58.3Endgame15.8

81Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	32
teleop	235	56
endgame	70	8
foul	5	0
total	360	96

Result

Final score

360 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 71.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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