Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

169.61 – 0.68

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

216 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 231.5 ±17.1

11040Aria STEAMex

Provisional

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 4.42Rank 46Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

2283Panteras

Season APEX 88.1Event APEX 70.6Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9134Tecmilenio - DEVOLT

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 94.59Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 133.8 ±20.8

7037Jeunes D'Argent - FresnilloPLC

Provisional

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX -17.94Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4977Iron Lion

Provisional

Season APEX 36.4Event APEX 23.48Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10562STEAMex Scorpions

Provisional

Season APEX 53.9Event APEX -4.86Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11040, 2283, 9134

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.6 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 11040, 2283, 9134

Auto

32.0 18%

Teleop

96.6 56%

Endgame

44.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7037, 4977, 10562

/ 100 compat

Projected

0.7 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7037, 4977, 10562

Auto

11.8 0%

Teleop

-11.6 100%

Endgame

-1.2 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.22 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score169.6pts

Blue projected score0.7pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 168.9
Score range: -22–193
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 125.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

231.5Season APEX133.8

32Auto11.8

96.6Teleop-11.6

44.6Endgame-1.2

58Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	6
teleop	135	10
endgame	41	12
foul	5	0
total	216	28

Result

Final score

216 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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