Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

63.79 – 83.26

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

111 – 56

Prediction missed · off by 37.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 190 ±18.8

8266Owlbot - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 42.7Event APEX 3.1Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9120Silverbot - Fresnillo PLC

Provisional

Season APEX 70Event APEX 11.31Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4731MONARCH-E

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 49.38Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 171.3 ±20.2

5874Prepa Tecmilenio BorderBots

Provisional

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX 14.51Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8291Golden Yellow Experience - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX 29.55Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11351LYNTECH - Fresnillo PLC

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 39.2Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8266, 9120, 4731

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8266, 9120, 4731

Auto

11.4 20%

Teleop

21.0 38%

Endgame

23.3 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5874, 8291, 11351

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5874, 8291, 11351

Auto

13.3 16%

Teleop

45.1 56%

Endgame

22.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score63.8pts

Blue projected score83.3pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.5
Score range: 41–106
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 167 vs event baseline 126.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

190Season APEX171.3

11.4Auto13.3

21Teleop45.1

23.3Endgame22.8

60Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	13
teleop	54	12
endgame	34	26
foul	0	5
total	111	56

Result

Final score

111 – 56

Prediction missed · off by 37.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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