Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

95.89 – 36.75

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

146 – 18

Prediction correct · off by 34.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 252.7 ±19.6

5716PrepaTec - Keybot

Season APEX 122.5Event APEX 76.32Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77

7653Minebots 7653 - Fresnillo PLC -CECyTE 18 Ciénega

Provisional

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX -6.77Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4355Samurai Code - Peñoles - John Deere

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 26.34Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 225.9 ±18.4

6896CABOTS - Fresnillo PLC - Conalep Caborca

Provisional

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 12.89Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5705DESERT EAGLES - JOHN DEERE

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 13.09Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8105Apollo Black Cat - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 37.2Event APEX 10.77Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5716, 7653, 4355

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5716, 7653, 4355

Auto

19.0 20%

Teleop

53.5 57%

Endgame

20.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6896, 5705, 8105

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6896, 5705, 8105

Auto

10.6 29%

Teleop

17.8 48%

Endgame

8.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score95.9pts

Blue projected score36.8pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 59.1
Score range: 14–119
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 164 vs event baseline 127.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

252.7Season APEX225.9

19Auto10.6

53.5Teleop17.8

20.8Endgame8.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	10
teleop	84	3
endgame	35	5
foul	0	0
total	146	18

Result

Final score

146 – 18

Prediction correct · off by 34.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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