Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

51.82 – 311.36

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 276

Prediction correct · off by 26.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 141.9 ±19.1

6608Prepa Tecmilenio - ARCADIA

Provisional

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX 5.65Rank 44Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

11380CECYBOTS - Peñoles

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 16.48Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4735Prepa Tecmilenio - DEROF - Peñoles

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 29.69Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 479.6 ±15.1

4400Cerbotics - Peñoles

Season APEX 270.6Event APEX 160.9Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7687Corcebots - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 26.58Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3158PrepaTec - TECBOT

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 123.88Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6608, 11380, 4735

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.8 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6608, 11380, 4735

Auto

6.1 15%

Teleop

28.7 69%

Endgame

6.6 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4400, 7687, 3158

/ 100 compat

Projected

311.4 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4400, 7687, 3158

Auto

45.2 15%

Teleop

189.2 61%

Endgame

74.0 24%

Strengths

· 4400 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.43 · Blue 2.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score51.8pts

Blue projected score311.4pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -259.5
Score range: 30–333
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 311 vs event baseline 124.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

141.9Season APEX479.6

6.1Auto45.2

28.7Teleop189.2

6.6Endgame74

31Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	78
teleop	18	161
endgame	1	37
foul	5	0
total	35	276

Result

Final score

35 – 276

Prediction correct · off by 26.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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