Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

42.98 – 99.43

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 42.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 115.4 ±19.2

9593Rhinos

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 16.51Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7018EOLOTICS - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 10Event APEX -5.14Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5312Lobotics - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 31.61Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226.5 ±16.5

3526PrepaTec - Blue Ignition

Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 65.93Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5526Type C - Peñoles

Season APEX 77.4Event APEX 3.11Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9499KANARITECH - FRESNILLO PLC

Provisional

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 30.39Rank 18Record 5-4-1Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9593, 7018, 5312

/ 100 compat

Projected

43 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9593, 7018, 5312

Auto

9.7 22%

Teleop

18.8 42%

Endgame

16.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3526, 5526, 9499

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3526, 5526, 9499

Auto

25.0 26%

Teleop

48.9 50%

Endgame

23.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score43pts

Blue projected score99.4pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -56.5
Score range: 21–121
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 227 vs event baseline 124.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

115.4Season APEX226.5

9.7Auto25

18.8Teleop48.9

16.2Endgame23.8

1Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	16
teleop	30	88
endgame	17	56
foul	0	0
total	67	160

Result

Final score

67 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 42.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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