Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

134.87 – 63.22

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

238 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 65 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 232.9 ±16.5

9301PrepaTec - MechRams

Season APEX 134.6Event APEX 99.27Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8293Prepa Tecmilenio - Startech

Provisional

Season APEX 32.6Event APEX 4.87Rank 40Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

4603Forza One - Peñoles

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 30.73Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 149.2 ±18

3527PrepaTec - Balam Esmeralda

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 49.73Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8290Jaegers60 - Peñoles

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 7.46Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

11031Golden STEAMex

Provisional

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 6.03Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9301, 8293, 4603

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9301, 8293, 4603

Auto

4.5 3%

Teleop

79.7 61%

Endgame

45.8 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3527, 8290, 11031

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.2 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3527, 8290, 11031

Auto

24.2 40%

Teleop

27.9 46%

Endgame

8.1 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.89 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score134.9pts

Blue projected score63.2pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 71.7
Score range: 41–157
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 123.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

232.9Season APEX149.2

4.5Auto24.2

79.7Teleop27.9

45.8Endgame8.1

14Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	11
teleop	130	58
endgame	73	16
foul	0	5
total	238	90

Result

Final score

238 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 65 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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