Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

81.12 – 169.91

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 22 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 161 ±18.8

6483Prepa Tecmilenio - CHARGER

Provisional

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 24.6Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11040Aria STEAMex

Provisional

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 12.09Rank 46Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

4731MONARCH-E

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 44.43Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316.4 ±18.1

9120Silverbot - Fresnillo PLC

Provisional

Season APEX 70Event APEX 26.47Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

7725PrepaTec - NUTS & VOLTS

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 66.36Rank 20Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5716PrepaTec - Keybot

Season APEX 122.5Event APEX 77.08Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6483, 11040, 4731

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.1 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6483, 11040, 4731

Auto

19.4 28%

Teleop

34.0 49%

Endgame

16.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9120, 7725, 5716

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.9 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9120, 7725, 5716

Auto

34.0 20%

Teleop

89.2 53%

Endgame

44.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.84 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score81.1pts

Blue projected score169.9pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -88.8
Score range: 54–197
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 207 vs event baseline 147.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

161Season APEX316.4

19.4Auto34

34Teleop89.2

16.1Endgame44.1

19Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	34
teleop	9	87
endgame	12	42
foul	0	0
total	44	163

Result

Final score

44 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 22 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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