Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

152.83 – 35.95

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

179 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 35.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 442.6 ±18.1

6199E-Hawks - Peñoles

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 33.2Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5948PrepaTec - Lebotics

Season APEX 338.5Event APEX 102.38Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5874Prepa Tecmilenio BorderBots

Provisional

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX 17.25Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 178.4 ±19.7

9513Circuit Crew 9513 - Caterpillar

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 17.34Rank 28Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 80

8291Golden Yellow Experience - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX 23.39Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6483Prepa Tecmilenio - CHARGER

Provisional

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX -4.78Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6199, 5948, 5874

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.8 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6199, 5948, 5874

Auto

26.4 18%

Teleop

87.0 58%

Endgame

37.1 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9513, 8291, 6483

/ 100 compat

Projected

36 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9513, 8291, 6483

Auto

14.0 37%

Teleop

13.1 35%

Endgame

10.6 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.08 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score152.8pts

Blue projected score36pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 116.9
Score range: 14–175
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 259 vs event baseline 123.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

442.6Season APEX178.4

26.4Auto14

87Teleop13.1

37.1Endgame10.6

0Consistency135

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	14
teleop	104	49
endgame	49	17
foul	0	0
total	179	80

Result

Final score

179 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 35.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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