Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 118.83

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 53.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 340.8 ±18.8

11304Meowbotics - Fresnillo PLC

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX -11.64Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6896CABOTS - Fresnillo PLC - Conalep Caborca

Provisional

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 7.53Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11040Aria STEAMex

Provisional

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 0.79Rank 46Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328.4 ±18

8105Apollo Black Cat - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 37.2Event APEX 0.07Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8266Owlbot - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 42.7Event APEX -7Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4403PrepaTec - ROULT - Peñoles

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 125.76Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11304, 6896, 11040

/ 100 compat

Projected

-3.3 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 11304, 6896, 11040

Auto

7.6 0%

Teleop

-16.3 100%

Endgame

1.2 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8105, 8266, 4403

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.8 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8105, 8266, 4403

Auto

31.8 26%

Teleop

80.4 67%

Endgame

8.1 7%

Strengths

· 4403 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.71 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score-3.3pts

Blue projected score118.8pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -118.8
Score range: -22–141
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 123.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

340.8Season APEX328.4

7.6Auto31.8

-16.3Teleop80.4

1.2Endgame8.1

101Consistency157

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	29
teleop	18	107
endgame	2	54
foul	10	0
total	36	190

Result

Final score

36 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 53.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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