Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

122.56 – 114.63

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 168

Prediction missed · off by 67 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 188.4 ±18

2283Panteras

Season APEX 88.1Event APEX 82.08Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 80

7037Jeunes D'Argent - FresnilloPLC

Provisional

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 6.3Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9593Rhinos

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 34.18Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 202.8 ±16.5

3526PrepaTec - Blue Ignition

Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 61.12Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4731MONARCH-E

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 44.62Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4401CETMOV - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 8.89Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2283, 7037, 9593

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2283, 7037, 9593

Auto

27.2 22%

Teleop

55.9 45%

Endgame

40.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3526, 4731, 4401

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3526, 4731, 4401

Auto

31.4 28%

Teleop

58.2 52%

Endgame

22.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score122.6pts

Blue projected score114.6pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.9
Score range: 93–145
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 210 vs event baseline 122.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

188.4Season APEX202.8

27.2Auto31.4

55.9Teleop58.2

40.3Endgame22.3

36Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	26
teleop	12	87
endgame	0	40
foul	0	15
total	42	168

Result

Final score

42 – 168

Prediction missed · off by 67 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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