Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

94.06 – 57.25

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

178 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 51.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 248.4 ±16.5

4977Iron Lion

Provisional

Season APEX 36.4Event APEX 18.77Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9301PrepaTec - MechRams

Season APEX 134.6Event APEX 91.27Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5526Type C - Peñoles

Season APEX 77.4Event APEX -15.98Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 133.4 ±20.2

8293Prepa Tecmilenio - Startech

Provisional

Season APEX 32.6Event APEX 12.34Rank 40Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

4355Samurai Code - Peñoles - John Deere

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 30.33Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6608Prepa Tecmilenio - ARCADIA

Provisional

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX 14.58Rank 44Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4977, 9301, 5526

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4977, 9301, 5526

Auto

11.7 13%

Teleop

47.6 53%

Endgame

29.9 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8293, 4355, 6608

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8293, 4355, 6608

Auto

0.6 1%

Teleop

32.1 57%

Endgame

23.4 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score94.1pts

Blue projected score57.3pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.8
Score range: 35–116
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 216 vs event baseline 122.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

248.4Season APEX133.4

11.7Auto0.6

47.6Teleop32.1

29.9Endgame23.4

106Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	11
teleop	97	5
endgame	41	7
foul	0	15
total	178	38

Result

Final score

178 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 51.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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