Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

232.85 – 26.05

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

240 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 385.3 ±16.4

6647PrepaTec - VOLTEC

Season APEX 267.2Event APEX 169.21Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10562STEAMex Scorpions

Provisional

Season APEX 53.9Event APEX 1.05Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3527PrepaTec - Balam Esmeralda

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 62.59Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 112.3 ±19.7

7018EOLOTICS - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 10Event APEX 3.35Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9513Circuit Crew 9513 - Caterpillar

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 19.84Rank 28Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 80

11031Golden STEAMex

Provisional

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 2.86Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6647, 10562, 3527

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.9 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6647, 10562, 3527

Auto

27.1 12%

Teleop

154.2 65%

Endgame

54.3 23%

Strengths

· 6647 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7018, 9513, 11031

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.1 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7018, 9513, 11031

Auto

7.2 32%

Teleop

6.8 31%

Endgame

8.2 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score232.9pts

Blue projected score26.1pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 206.8
Score range: 4–255
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 121.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

385.3Season APEX112.3

27.1Auto7.2

154.2Teleop6.8

54.3Endgame8.2

112Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	4
teleop	151	23
endgame	61	11
foul	0	5
total	240	43

Result

Final score

240 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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