Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

101 – 165.53

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

94 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 22.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 187.5 ±19.7

9499KANARITECH - FRESNILLO PLC

Provisional

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 20.39Rank 18Record 5-4-1Status provisionalConfidence 74

4735Prepa Tecmilenio - DEROF - Peñoles

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 53.91Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9120Silverbot - Fresnillo PLC

Provisional

Season APEX 70Event APEX 26.7Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 494.5 ±13.9

8290Jaegers60 - Peñoles

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 13.44Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

5948PrepaTec - Lebotics

Season APEX 338.5Event APEX 106.85Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5705DESERT EAGLES - JOHN DEERE

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 45.24Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9499, 4735, 9120

/ 100 compat

Projected

101 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9499, 4735, 9120

Auto

18.7 19%

Teleop

44.1 45%

Endgame

34.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8290, 5948, 5705

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8290, 5948, 5705

Auto

23.3 14%

Teleop

100.9 60%

Endgame

42.8 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score101pts

Blue projected score165.5pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64.5
Score range: 79–188
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 121.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

187.5Season APEX494.5

18.7Auto23.3

44.1Teleop100.9

34.3Endgame42.8

61Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	32
teleop	48	86
endgame	34	10
foul	0	0
total	94	128

Result

Final score

94 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 22.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree