Qualification · Qualification 31
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
103.9 – 141.3
39%61%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
83 – 136
Prediction correct · off by 13.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 176.7 ±18.1
7037Jeunes D'Argent - FresnilloPLC
Provisional
Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 8.72Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 66.49Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 28.69Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 284.1 ±17.7
6896CABOTS - Fresnillo PLC - Conalep Caborca
Provisional
Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 13.88Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 99.41Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 28.01Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 7037, 3526, 6199
50
/ 100 compatProjected
103.9 pts
~1.2 RP (regional)
Teams: 7037, 3526, 6199
Auto
21.8 22%
Teleop
34.4 35%
Endgame
43.1 43%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 41%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6896, 3158, 11380
63
/ 100 compatProjected
141.3 pts
~1.8 RP (regional)
Teams: 6896, 3158, 11380
Auto
23.9 16%
Teleop
99.0 68%
Endgame
23.0 16%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 41%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.79
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score103.9pts
Blue projected score141.3pts
Red win probability39%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 41%, blue 52%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -37.4
- Score range
- 82–163
- Upset likelihood
- 39%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
176.7Season APEX284.1
21.8Auto23.9
34.4Teleop99
43.1Endgame23
58Consistency4
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 26 | 26 |
| teleop | 51 | 57 |
| endgame | 1 | 33 |
| foul | 5 | 20 |
| total | 83 | 136 |
Result
Final score
83 – 136
Prediction correct · off by 13.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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