Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

31.11 – 123.55

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

14 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 156.7 ±17

5526Type C - Peñoles

Season APEX 77.4Event APEX -12.91Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

11040Aria STEAMex

Provisional

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 0.11Rank 46Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

9593Rhinos

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 43.91Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.9 ±19.1

5716PrepaTec - Keybot

Season APEX 122.5Event APEX 36.95Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77

2283Panteras

Season APEX 88.1Event APEX 66.65Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 80

5874Prepa Tecmilenio BorderBots

Provisional

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX 19.95Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5526, 11040, 9593

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.1 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5526, 11040, 9593

Auto

19.2 65%

Teleop

13.5 46%

Endgame

-3.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5716, 2283, 5874

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.6 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5716, 2283, 5874

Auto

27.5 22%

Teleop

49.7 40%

Endgame

46.3 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.86 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score31.1pts

Blue projected score123.6pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -92.4
Score range: 9–146
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 122.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

156.7Season APEX262.9

19.2Auto27.5

13.5Teleop49.7

-3.1Endgame46.3

53Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	47
teleop	0	92
endgame	2	43
foul	0	0
total	14	182

Result

Final score

14 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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