Qualification · Qualification 3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
135.49 – 60.63
72%28%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
116 – 19
Prediction correct · off by 30.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 236.2 ±18.1
Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 13.56Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 134.6Event APEX 110.47Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97
8266Owlbot - Peñoles
Provisional
Season APEX 42.7Event APEX 11.46Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179.9 ±18.8
10562STEAMex Scorpions
Provisional
Season APEX 53.9Event APEX 12.6Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
5312Lobotics - Peñoles
Provisional
Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 43.06Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
Season APEX 77.4Event APEX 4.97Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 11380, 9301, 8266
58
/ 100 compatProjected
135.5 pts
~1.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 11380, 9301, 8266
Auto
19.8 15%
Teleop
82.5 63%
Endgame
29.0 22%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10562, 5312, 5526
39
/ 100 compatProjected
60.6 pts
~1.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 10562, 5312, 5526
Auto
11.5 19%
Teleop
31.7 51%
Endgame
18.5 30%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.03
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score135.5pts
Blue projected score60.6pts
Red win probability72%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 47%, blue 43%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 74.9
- Score range
- 34–162
- Upset likelihood
- 28%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
236.2Season APEX179.9
19.8Auto11.5
82.5Teleop31.7
29Endgame18.5
50Consistency40
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 5 | 10 |
| teleop | 88 | 1 |
| endgame | 23 | 3 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 116 | 19 |
Result
Final score
116 – 19
Prediction correct · off by 30.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
Watch right here, no need to leave the page.