Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

155.87 – 219.85

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

187 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 29.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254.1 ±16

9134Tecmilenio - DEVOLT

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 74.8Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7687Corcebots - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 44.51Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4731MONARCH-E

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 36.56Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 344.8 ±17

4355Samurai Code - Peñoles - John Deere

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 39.2Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6647PrepaTec - VOLTEC

Season APEX 267.2Event APEX 172.97Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7018EOLOTICS - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 10Event APEX 7.68Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9134, 7687, 4731

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9134, 7687, 4731

Auto

27.2 19%

Teleop

80.7 56%

Endgame

37.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4355, 6647, 7018

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4355, 6647, 7018

Auto

29.1 13%

Teleop

143.9 65%

Endgame

47.1 21%

Strengths

· 6647 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score155.9pts

Blue projected score219.9pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64
Score range: 134–242
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 379 vs event baseline 119.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254.1Season APEX344.8

27.2Auto29.1

80.7Teleop143.9

37.3Endgame47.1

0Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	23
teleop	122	109
endgame	47	60
foul	0	0
total	187	192

Result

Final score

187 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 29.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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