Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

54.13 – 67.84

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

91 – 52

Prediction missed · off by 26.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 158.1 ±18.5

9513Circuit Crew 9513 - Caterpillar

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 15.48Rank 28Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 80

3527PrepaTec - Balam Esmeralda

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 61.24Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8105Apollo Black Cat - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 37.2Event APEX -22.59Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 127.4 ±20.8

11031Golden STEAMex

Provisional

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 1.87Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5312Lobotics - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 42.89Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6608Prepa Tecmilenio - ARCADIA

Provisional

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX 23.08Rank 44Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9513, 3527, 8105

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9513, 3527, 8105

Auto

10.0 19%

Teleop

23.3 45%

Endgame

18.9 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11031, 5312, 6608

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11031, 5312, 6608

Auto

12.3 19%

Teleop

30.8 47%

Endgame

22.9 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score54.1pts

Blue projected score67.8pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.7
Score range: 32–90
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 143 vs event baseline 121.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

158.1Season APEX127.4

10Auto12.3

23.3Teleop30.8

18.9Endgame22.9

199Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	16
teleop	48	27
endgame	32	4
foul	0	5
total	91	52

Result

Final score

91 – 52

Prediction missed · off by 26.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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