Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

17.75 – 39.6

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

23 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 21.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 133.2 ±19.2

6483Prepa Tecmilenio - CHARGER

Provisional

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX -4.27Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8290Jaegers60 - Peñoles

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 17.82Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

8293Prepa Tecmilenio - Startech

Provisional

Season APEX 32.6Event APEX 4.2Rank 40Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 135.3 ±20.8

8266Owlbot - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 42.7Event APEX 4.55Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7577VELABOTS - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 32.1Event APEX 23.64Rank 41Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8291Golden Yellow Experience - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX 11.41Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6483, 8290, 8293

/ 100 compat

Projected

17.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6483, 8290, 8293

Auto

-7.1 0%

Teleop

-0.6 0%

Endgame

24.4 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8266, 7577, 8291

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8266, 7577, 8291

Auto

23.2 57%

Teleop

7.0 17%

Endgame

10.4 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score17.8pts

Blue projected score39.6pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.8
Score range: -4–62
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 101 vs event baseline 124.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

133.2Season APEX135.3

-7.1Auto23.2

-0.6Teleop7

24.4Endgame10.4

57Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	19
teleop	4	45
endgame	10	14
foul	0	0
total	23	78

Result

Final score

23 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 21.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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