Qualification · Qualification 25
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
245.1 – 192.34
66%34%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
299 – 147
Prediction correct · off by 49.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 581.7 ±14.7
Season APEX 270.6Event APEX 128.94Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 7.25Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 108.91Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 236.2 ±16.9
Season APEX 134.6Event APEX 87.28Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 38.68Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 66.38Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4400, 7653, 4403
83
/ 100 compatProjected
245.1 pts
~1.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 4400, 7653, 4403
Auto
53.4 22%
Teleop
134.4 56%
Endgame
51.0 21%
Strengths
- · 4400 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9301, 6199, 4735
78
/ 100 compatProjected
192.3 pts
~1.1 RP (regional)
Teams: 9301, 6199, 4735
Auto
27.6 14%
Teleop
125.2 65%
Endgame
40.3 21%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.11
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score245.1pts
Blue projected score192.3pts
Red win probability66%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 55%, blue 39%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 52.8
- Score range
- 170–267
- Upset likelihood
- 34%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-17
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
581.7Season APEX236.2
53.4Auto27.6
134.4Teleop125.2
51Endgame40.3
91Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 59 | 12 |
| teleop | 219 | 74 |
| endgame | 16 | 46 |
| foul | 5 | 15 |
| total | 299 | 147 |
Result
Final score
299 – 147
Prediction correct · off by 49.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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