Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

124.48 – 107.77

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

156 – 19

Prediction correct · off by 60.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 450.9 ±18.1

11351LYNTECH - Fresnillo PLC

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 23.55Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10562STEAMex Scorpions

Provisional

Season APEX 53.9Event APEX -5.69Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5948PrepaTec - Lebotics

Season APEX 338.5Event APEX 106.62Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 399.2 ±16

5705DESERT EAGLES - JOHN DEERE

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 75.1Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11304Meowbotics - Fresnillo PLC

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 6.87Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4977Iron Lion

Provisional

Season APEX 36.4Event APEX 25.8Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11351, 10562, 5948

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11351, 10562, 5948

Auto

20.9 18%

Teleop

77.9 68%

Endgame

15.7 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5705, 11304, 4977

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5705, 11304, 4977

Auto

13.4 13%

Teleop

65.3 64%

Endgame

23.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score124.5pts

Blue projected score107.8pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.7
Score range: 86–146
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 175 vs event baseline 123.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

450.9Season APEX399.2

20.9Auto13.4

77.9Teleop65.3

15.7Endgame23.4

37Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	13
teleop	111	3
endgame	38	3
foul	0	0
total	156	19

Result

Final score

156 – 19

Prediction correct · off by 60.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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