Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

84.21 – 202.3

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

184 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 94.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254 ±18.4

3158PrepaTec - TECBOT

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 56.71Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5312Lobotics - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 32.96Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5874Prepa Tecmilenio BorderBots

Provisional

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX -5.46Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 460.2 ±14.8

6896CABOTS - Fresnillo PLC - Conalep Caborca

Provisional

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 8.5Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9134Tecmilenio - DEVOLT

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 45.45Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6647PrepaTec - VOLTEC

Season APEX 267.2Event APEX 148.35Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3158, 5312, 5874

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.2 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3158, 5312, 5874

Auto

15.5 19%

Teleop

52.4 64%

Endgame

13.6 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6896, 9134, 6647

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.3 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6896, 9134, 6647

Auto

17.3 9%

Teleop

120.4 61%

Endgame

60.9 31%

Strengths

· 6647 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score84.2pts

Blue projected score202.3pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -118.1
Score range: 63–223
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 475 vs event baseline 118.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254Season APEX460.2

15.5Auto17.3

52.4Teleop120.4

13.6Endgame60.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	45
teleop	92	182
endgame	65	64
foul	0	0
total	184	291

Result

Final score

184 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 94.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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