Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

105.14 – 84.32

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

41 – 130

Prediction missed · off by 54.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 115 ±19.2

8290Jaegers60 - Peñoles

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 23.48Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

7037Jeunes D'Argent - FresnilloPLC

Provisional

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 38.5Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7577VELABOTS - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 32.1Event APEX 43.16Rank 41Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213.9 ±18.1

3526PrepaTec - Blue Ignition

Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 68.63Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5716PrepaTec - Keybot

Season APEX 122.5Event APEX 15.26Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77

7018EOLOTICS - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 10Event APEX 0.43Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8290, 7037, 7577

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8290, 7037, 7577

Auto

21.7 21%

Teleop

57.5 57%

Endgame

22.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3526, 5716, 7018

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3526, 5716, 7018

Auto

21.1 26%

Teleop

41.3 50%

Endgame

20.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score105.1pts

Blue projected score84.3pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.8
Score range: 62–127
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 119.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

115Season APEX213.9

21.7Auto21.1

57.5Teleop41.3

22.4Endgame20.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	29
teleop	9	62
endgame	23	39
foul	0	0
total	41	130

Result

Final score

41 – 130

Prediction missed · off by 54.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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