Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

2.59 – 110.32

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

88 – 88

Prediction missed · off by 53.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 157.6 ±19.7

6608Prepa Tecmilenio - ARCADIA

Provisional

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX 4.11Rank 44Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

9499KANARITECH - FRESNILLO PLC

Provisional

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX -9.97Rank 18Record 5-4-1Status provisionalConfidence 74

9513Circuit Crew 9513 - Caterpillar

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 8.45Rank 28Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179 ±18.8

8293Prepa Tecmilenio - Startech

Provisional

Season APEX 32.6Event APEX 24.64Rank 40Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

11040Aria STEAMex

Provisional

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 5.82Rank 46Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

7725PrepaTec - NUTS & VOLTS

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 79.86Rank 20Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6608, 9499, 9513

/ 100 compat

Projected

2.6 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6608, 9499, 9513

Auto

0.6 0%

Teleop

-12.3 100%

Endgame

7.7 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8293, 11040, 7725

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8293, 11040, 7725

Auto

16.8 15%

Teleop

60.1 54%

Endgame

35.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.79 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score2.6pts

Blue projected score110.3pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -107.7
Score range: -19–132
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 176 vs event baseline 121.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

157.6Season APEX179

0.6Auto16.8

-12.3Teleop60.1

7.7Endgame35

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	11
teleop	65	53
endgame	17	24
foul	0	0
total	88	88

Result

Final score

88 – 88

Prediction missed · off by 53.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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