Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

95.97 – 109

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

225 – 29

Prediction missed · off by 104.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 375 ±16.7

11380CECYBOTS - Peñoles

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 0.6Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4355Samurai Code - Peñoles - John Deere

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 24.64Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4403PrepaTec - ROULT - Peñoles

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 70.73Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 163.6 ±19.2

9593Rhinos

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 64.45Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6483Prepa Tecmilenio - CHARGER

Provisional

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 9.92Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11031Golden STEAMex

Provisional

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 34.63Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11380, 4355, 4403

/ 100 compat

Projected

96 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11380, 4355, 4403

Auto

20.4 21%

Teleop

67.6 69%

Endgame

10.0 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9593, 6483, 11031

/ 100 compat

Projected

109 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9593, 6483, 11031

Auto

31.7 28%

Teleop

66.8 60%

Endgame

13.2 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score96pts

Blue projected score109pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13
Score range: 74–131
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 254 vs event baseline 121.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375Season APEX163.6

20.4Auto31.7

67.6Teleop66.8

10Endgame13.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	19
teleop	152	10
endgame	28	0
foul	0	0
total	225	29

Result

Final score

225 – 29

Prediction missed · off by 104.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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