Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.44 – 79.66

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

67 – 36

Prediction missed · off by 23.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 185.1 ±18.1

7687Corcebots - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 30.83Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5526Type C - Peñoles

Season APEX 77.4Event APEX -4.29Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6199E-Hawks - Peñoles

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 43.9Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.7 ±20.2

8105Apollo Black Cat - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 37.2Event APEX -15.13Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9120Silverbot - Fresnillo PLC

Provisional

Season APEX 70Event APEX 57.52Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11351LYNTECH - Fresnillo PLC

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 37.27Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7687, 5526, 6199

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7687, 5526, 6199

Auto

10.9 15%

Teleop

42.9 60%

Endgame

17.2 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8105, 9120, 11351

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8105, 9120, 11351

Auto

20.5 26%

Teleop

38.3 49%

Endgame

19.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score70.4pts

Blue projected score79.7pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.2
Score range: 47–103
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 103 vs event baseline 125.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

185.1Season APEX165.7

10.9Auto20.5

42.9Teleop38.3

17.2Endgame19.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	9
teleop	34	14
endgame	19	8
foul	0	5
total	67	36

Result

Final score

67 – 36

Prediction missed · off by 23.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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