Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

121.12 – 194.87

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

102 – 337

Prediction correct · off by 80.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 174.9 ±19.7

4401CETMOV - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 18.58Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2283Panteras

Season APEX 88.1Event APEX 71.19Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 80

8266Owlbot - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 42.7Event APEX 31.35Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 658.9 ±14.1

4735Prepa Tecmilenio - DEROF - Peñoles

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 25.73Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4400Cerbotics - Peñoles

Season APEX 270.6Event APEX 87.76Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5948PrepaTec - Lebotics

Season APEX 338.5Event APEX 81.38Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4401, 2283, 8266

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4401, 2283, 8266

Auto

19.5 16%

Teleop

64.3 52%

Endgame

39.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4735, 4400, 5948

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.9 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4735, 4400, 5948

Auto

33.5 17%

Teleop

111.9 58%

Endgame

46.3 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score121.1pts

Blue projected score194.9pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -73.7
Score range: 99–217
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 439 vs event baseline 123.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

174.9Season APEX658.9

19.5Auto33.5

64.3Teleop111.9

39.4Endgame46.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	58
teleop	32	190
endgame	27	79
foul	0	10
total	102	337

Result

Final score

102 – 337

Prediction correct · off by 80.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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