Qualification · Qualification 16
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
138.56 – 79.01
68%32%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
272 – 78
Prediction correct · off by 67.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 404.3 ±12.7
Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 16.22Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 67.04Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 134.6Event APEX 55.3Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 153.1 ±17
Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 14.98Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 11.44Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83
4977Iron Lion
Provisional
Season APEX 36.4Event APEX 52.59Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3158, 5705, 9301
73
/ 100 compatProjected
138.6 pts
~1.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 3158, 5705, 9301
Auto
23.2 16%
Teleop
88.5 62%
Endgame
31.3 22%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 54%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4731, 8290, 4977
54
/ 100 compatProjected
79 pts
~1.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 4731, 8290, 4977
Auto
15.9 20%
Teleop
34.4 44%
Endgame
27.3 35%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 54%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.02
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score138.6pts
Blue projected score79pts
Red win probability68%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 54%, blue 34%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 59.6
- Score range
- 57–161
- Upset likelihood
- 32%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
404.3Season APEX153.1
23.2Auto15.9
88.5Teleop34.4
31.3Endgame27.3
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 35 | 21 |
| teleop | 190 | 22 |
| endgame | 47 | 20 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 272 | 78 |
Result
Final score
272 – 78
Prediction correct · off by 67.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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