Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

6.44 – 65.54

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 227

Prediction correct · off by 112.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 187.6 ±20.2

5874Prepa Tecmilenio BorderBots

Provisional

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX 1.54Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9499KANARITECH - FRESNILLO PLC

Provisional

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX -22.83Rank 18Record 5-4-1Status provisionalConfidence 74

4355Samurai Code - Peñoles - John Deere

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 27.73Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 375.5 ±15.6

4403PrepaTec - ROULT - Peñoles

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 40.56Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3526PrepaTec - Blue Ignition

Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 29.59Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11031Golden STEAMex

Provisional

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX -4.61Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5874, 9499, 4355

/ 100 compat

Projected

6.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5874, 9499, 4355

Auto

9.4 93%

Teleop

3.8 38%

Endgame

-3.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4403, 3526, 11031

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4403, 3526, 11031

Auto

16.8 26%

Teleop

34.6 53%

Endgame

13.6 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score6.4pts

Blue projected score65.5pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.1
Score range: -15–87
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 297 vs event baseline 117.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

187.6Season APEX375.5

9.4Auto16.8

3.8Teleop34.6

-3.1Endgame13.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	63
teleop	37	143
endgame	18	21
foul	5	0
total	70	227

Result

Final score

70 – 227

Prediction correct · off by 112.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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