Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

100.35 – 52.72

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

29 – 137

Prediction missed · off by 77.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 127.2 ±19.2

8105Apollo Black Cat - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 37.2Event APEX 5.4Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6608Prepa Tecmilenio - ARCADIA

Provisional

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX 20.65Rank 44Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

9593Rhinos

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 74.3Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.9 ±17.7

9134Tecmilenio - DEVOLT

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 5.13Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7037Jeunes D'Argent - FresnilloPLC

Provisional

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 37.14Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11351LYNTECH - Fresnillo PLC

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 10.45Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8105, 6608, 9593

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8105, 6608, 9593

Auto

16.8 17%

Teleop

59.2 59%

Endgame

23.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9134, 7037, 11351

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9134, 7037, 11351

Auto

15.1 29%

Teleop

30.6 60%

Endgame

5.6 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score100.4pts

Blue projected score52.7pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.6
Score range: 31–122
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 166 vs event baseline 120.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

127.2Season APEX222.9

16.8Auto15.1

59.2Teleop30.6

23.7Endgame5.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	20
teleop	9	60
endgame	9	42
foul	0	15
total	29	137

Result

Final score

29 – 137

Prediction missed · off by 77.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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