Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

90.77 – 35.76

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

210 – 18

Prediction correct · off by 68.5 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 362.4 ±17.7

6647PrepaTec - VOLTEC

Season APEX 267.2Event APEX 83.87Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8293Prepa Tecmilenio - Startech

Provisional

Season APEX 32.6Event APEX 17.43Rank 40Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

7653Minebots 7653 - Fresnillo PLC -CECyTE 18 Ciénega

Provisional

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX -10.53Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 91.4 ±20.2

11040Aria STEAMex

Provisional

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 12.57Rank 46Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

7018EOLOTICS - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 10Event APEX 3.43Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11380CECYBOTS - Peñoles

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 19.76Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6647, 8293, 7653

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6647, 8293, 7653

Auto

13.1 15%

Teleop

51.1 57%

Endgame

25.2 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11040, 7018, 11380

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 11040, 7018, 11380

Auto

6.5 17%

Teleop

24.9 66%

Endgame

6.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.84 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score90.8pts

Blue projected score35.8pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55
Score range: 14–113
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 228 vs event baseline 121.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

362.4Season APEX91.4

13.1Auto6.5

51.1Teleop24.9

25.2Endgame6.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	5
teleop	131	11
endgame	69	2
foul	0	0
total	210	18

Result

Final score

210 – 18

Prediction correct · off by 68.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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