Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

110.53 – 89.8

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

138 – 214

Prediction missed · off by 75.8 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 244.6 ±18.8

5312Lobotics - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 5.43Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7725PrepaTec - NUTS & VOLTS

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 43.96Rank 20Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

6896CABOTS - Fresnillo PLC - Conalep Caborca

Provisional

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 61.14Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 426.5 ±18.8

7577VELABOTS - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 32.1Event APEX 26.48Rank 41Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5948PrepaTec - Lebotics

Season APEX 338.5Event APEX 61.14Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7687Corcebots - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 2.18Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5312, 7725, 6896

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.5 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5312, 7725, 6896

Auto

23.7 22%

Teleop

63.4 58%

Endgame

22.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7577, 5948, 7687

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7577, 5948, 7687

Auto

18.6 21%

Teleop

61.2 68%

Endgame

10.4 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score110.5pts

Blue projected score89.8pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.7
Score range: 69–132
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 352 vs event baseline 115.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

244.6Season APEX426.5

23.7Auto18.6

63.4Teleop61.2

22.9Endgame10.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	30
teleop	76	136
endgame	37	48
foul	0	0
total	138	214

Result

Final score

138 – 214

Prediction missed · off by 75.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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