Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

92.48 – 74.76

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

154 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 50.9 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 265.1 ±18.8

9120Silverbot - Fresnillo PLC

Provisional

Season APEX 70Event APEX 52.36Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8291Golden Yellow Experience - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX 9.14Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9301PrepaTec - MechRams

Season APEX 134.6Event APEX 30.98Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 144.7 ±19.7

4977Iron Lion

Provisional

Season APEX 36.4Event APEX 32.36Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4401CETMOV - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 11.26Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3527PrepaTec - Balam Esmeralda

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 31.14Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9120, 8291, 9301

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.5 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9120, 8291, 9301

Auto

12.5 13%

Teleop

60.2 64%

Endgame

22.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4977, 4401, 3527

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4977, 4401, 3527

Auto

16.5 22%

Teleop

47.9 63%

Endgame

11.2 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score92.5pts

Blue projected score74.8pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.7
Score range: 55–112
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 113.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

265.1Season APEX144.7

12.5Auto16.5

60.2Teleop47.9

22.1Endgame11.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	22
teleop	84	51
endgame	48	42
foul	0	0
total	154	115

Result

Final score

154 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 50.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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