Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

121.86 – 148.43

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

148 – 93

Prediction missed · off by 40.8 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 370 ±16.7

8266Owlbot - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 42.7Event APEX 33.14Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4400Cerbotics - Peñoles

Season APEX 270.6Event APEX 75.29Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9513Circuit Crew 9513 - Caterpillar

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 13.43Rank 28Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 304.8 ±15.3

4603Forza One - Peñoles

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 26.57Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5716PrepaTec - Keybot

Season APEX 122.5Event APEX 46.57Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5705DESERT EAGLES - JOHN DEERE

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 75.29Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8266, 4400, 9513

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8266, 4400, 9513

Auto

19.5 16%

Teleop

77.4 64%

Endgame

24.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4603, 5716, 5705

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4603, 5716, 5705

Auto

28.9 20%

Teleop

82.3 56%

Endgame

35.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score121.9pts

Blue projected score148.4pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.6
Score range: 102–168
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 241 vs event baseline 112.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

370Season APEX304.8

19.5Auto28.9

77.4Teleop82.3

24.9Endgame35.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	19
teleop	73	48
endgame	32	21
foul	15	5
total	148	93

Result

Final score

148 – 93

Prediction missed · off by 40.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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