Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.05 – 233.61

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

93 – 283

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 151.9 ±17.5

4735Prepa Tecmilenio - DEROF - Peñoles

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 20.18Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4603Forza One - Peñoles

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 39.26Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4977Iron Lion

Provisional

Season APEX 36.4Event APEX 23.61Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 375.8 ±15.1

6199E-Hawks - Peñoles

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 20.15Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9593Rhinos

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 30.56Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6647PrepaTec - VOLTEC

Season APEX 267.2Event APEX 182.9Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4735, 4603, 4977

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.1 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4735, 4603, 4977

Auto

20.2 26%

Teleop

31.0 40%

Endgame

26.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6199, 9593, 6647

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.6 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6199, 9593, 6647

Auto

31.6 14%

Teleop

140.9 62%

Endgame

53.0 24%

Strengths

· 6647 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.65 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score83.1pts

Blue projected score233.6pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -150.6
Score range: 56–261
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 376 vs event baseline 147.9.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

151.9Season APEX375.8

20.2Auto31.6

31Teleop140.9

26.6Endgame53

41Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	38
teleop	47	185
endgame	24	60
foul	5	0
total	93	283

Result

Final score

93 – 283

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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