Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

385.07 – 302.02

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

333 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 31 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 784 ±11.2

11304Meowbotics - Fresnillo PLC

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 10Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6647PrepaTec - VOLTEC

Season APEX 267.2Event APEX 184.61Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4400Cerbotics - Peñoles

Season APEX 270.6Event APEX 190.46Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 626.4 ±13.5

8290Jaegers60 - Peñoles

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 20.72Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

4403PrepaTec - ROULT - Peñoles

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 138.99Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5948PrepaTec - Lebotics

Season APEX 338.5Event APEX 142.31Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11304, 6647, 4400

/ 100 compat

Projected

385.1 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 11304, 6647, 4400

Auto

46.5 12%

Teleop

234.1 63%

Endgame

92.1 25%

Strengths

· 4400 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8290, 4403, 5948

/ 100 compat

Projected

302 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8290, 4403, 5948

Auto

54.1 19%

Teleop

182.5 63%

Endgame

52.9 18%

Strengths

· 5948 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score385.1pts

Blue projected score302pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83.1
Score range: 276–411
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 625 vs event baseline 146.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

784Season APEX626.4

46.5Auto54.1

234.1Teleop182.5

92.1Endgame52.9

0Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	51
teleop	229	150
endgame	29	91
foul	20	0
total	333	292

Result

Final score

333 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 31 pts

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