Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

399.49 – 303.45

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

278 – 285

Prediction missed · off by 70 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 784 ±11.2

11304Meowbotics - Fresnillo PLC

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 15.34Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6647PrepaTec - VOLTEC

Season APEX 267.2Event APEX 189.08Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4400Cerbotics - Peñoles

Season APEX 270.6Event APEX 195.07Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 626.4 ±13.5

8290Jaegers60 - Peñoles

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 21.84Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

4403PrepaTec - ROULT - Peñoles

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 138.63Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5948PrepaTec - Lebotics

Season APEX 338.5Event APEX 142.98Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11304, 6647, 4400

/ 100 compat

Projected

399.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 11304, 6647, 4400

Auto

47.2 12%

Teleop

244.8 63%

Endgame

96.2 25%

Strengths

· 4400 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8290, 4403, 5948

/ 100 compat

Projected

303.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8290, 4403, 5948

Auto

54.2 19%

Teleop

180.4 62%

Endgame

56.5 19%

Strengths

· 5948 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.04 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score399.5pts

Blue projected score303.5pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 96
Score range: 277–425
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 563 vs event baseline 144.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

784Season APEX626.4

47.2Auto54.2

244.8Teleop180.4

96.2Endgame56.5

0Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	53
teleop	155	197
endgame	61	20
foul	20	15
total	278	285

Result

Final score

278 – 285

Prediction missed · off by 70 pts

Match videos

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