Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
153.7 – 110.19
63%37%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
173 – 51
Prediction correct · off by 39.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 397.1 ±12.7
Season APEX 150Event APEX 72.19Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 24.5Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 57.01Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 244.2 ±15.3
Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 23.36Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77
Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 48.81Rank 20Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 129Event APEX 38.02Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 7546, 8740, 6652
74
/ 100 compatProjected
153.7 pts
~1.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 7546, 8740, 6652
Auto
20.5 14%
Teleop
79.9 54%
Endgame
48.7 33%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 34%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6170, 6348, 6702
59
/ 100 compatProjected
110.2 pts
~1.1 RP (regional)
Teams: 6170, 6348, 6702
Auto
18.0 18%
Teleop
49.1 48%
Endgame
35.3 34%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 34%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.09
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score153.7pts
Blue projected score110.2pts
Red win probability63%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 34%, blue 32%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 43.5
- Score range
- 90–174
- Upset likelihood
- 37%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
397.1Season APEX244.2
20.5Auto18
79.9Teleop49.1
48.7Endgame35.3
5Consistency6
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 10 | 16 |
| teleop | 103 | 23 |
| endgame | 60 | 12 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 173 | 51 |
Result
Final score
173 – 51
Prediction correct · off by 39.2 pts
Match videos
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