Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
109.85 – 95.35
54%46%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
96 – 163
Prediction missed · off by 40.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 146.2 ±18
Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 60.71Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91
Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 17.75Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 31.39Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 244.2 ±15.3
Season APEX 129Event APEX 33.29Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 44.14Rank 20Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 17.92Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5887, 5959, 3480
63
/ 100 compatProjected
109.9 pts
~1.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 5887, 5959, 3480
Auto
21.6 21%
Teleop
51.0 49%
Endgame
31.4 30%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 22%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6702, 6348, 6170
55
/ 100 compatProjected
95.4 pts
~1.3 RP (regional)
Teams: 6702, 6348, 6170
Auto
17.2 20%
Teleop
38.9 45%
Endgame
30.8 35%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 22%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.27
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score109.9pts
Blue projected score95.4pts
Red win probability54%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 22%, blue 32%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 14.5
- Score range
- 75–130
- Upset likelihood
- 46%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
146.2Season APEX244.2
21.6Auto17.2
51Teleop38.9
31.4Endgame30.8
39Consistency2
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 32 | 22 |
| teleop | 43 | 84 |
| endgame | 21 | 52 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 96 | 163 |
Result
Final score
96 – 163
Prediction missed · off by 40.8 pts
Match videos
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