Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
104.43 – 90.11
54%46%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
126 – 84
Prediction correct · off by 13.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 307 ±16.2
Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 35.86Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Season APEX 221Event APEX 46.34Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 22.23Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 288.8 ±16.5
Season APEX 63.4Event APEX 9.28Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94
9213Tecuani
Provisional
Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 26.7Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74
Season APEX 160.6Event APEX 54.13Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3933, 6106, 3522
61
/ 100 compatProjected
104.4 pts
~1.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 3933, 6106, 3522
Auto
18.5 20%
Teleop
54.9 58%
Endgame
20.5 22%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 22%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3472, 9213, 11065
53
/ 100 compatProjected
90.1 pts
~1.3 RP (regional)
Teams: 3472, 9213, 11065
Auto
17.8 20%
Teleop
54.6 61%
Endgame
17.8 20%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 22%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.3
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score104.4pts
Blue projected score90.1pts
Red win probability54%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 22%, blue 34%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 14.3
- Score range
- 70–124
- Upset likelihood
- 46%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
307Season APEX288.8
18.5Auto17.8
54.9Teleop54.6
20.5Endgame17.8
54Consistency13
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 43 | 18 |
| teleop | 62 | 43 |
| endgame | 21 | 18 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 126 | 84 |
Result
Final score
126 – 84
Prediction correct · off by 13.8 pts
Match videos
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