Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
170.38 – 90.71
73%27%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
126 – 105
Prediction correct · off by 29.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 364.9 ±14.9
Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 60.31Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77
Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 18.3Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 237.3Event APEX 91.77Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 244.2 ±15.3
Season APEX 129Event APEX 32.03Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 42.62Rank 20Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 16.06Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4584, 9280, 3354
81
/ 100 compatProjected
170.4 pts
~1.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 4584, 9280, 3354
Auto
29.8 18%
Teleop
95.4 58%
Endgame
38.0 23%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 37%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6702, 6348, 6170
50
/ 100 compatProjected
90.7 pts
~0.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 6702, 6348, 6170
Auto
13.6 17%
Teleop
34.1 42%
Endgame
33.7 41%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 37%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.87 · Blue 0.9
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score170.4pts
Blue projected score90.7pts
Red win probability73%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 37%, blue 32%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 79.7
- Score range
- 71–190
- Upset likelihood
- 27%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
364.9Season APEX244.2
29.8Auto13.6
95.4Teleop34.1
38Endgame33.7
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 17 | 28 |
| teleop | 71 | 50 |
| endgame | 38 | 22 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 126 | 105 |
Result
Final score
126 – 105
Prediction correct · off by 29.3 pts
Match videos
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