Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
220.38 – 109.17
80%20%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
248 – 115
Prediction correct · off by 16.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 484.5 ±13.1
Season APEX 219.7Event APEX 115.66Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 59.7Event APEX 28.26Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Season APEX 205.1Event APEX 76.46Rank 12Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 146.2 ±18
Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 61.14Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91
Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 17.16Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 30.87Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6017, 5932, 7421
82
/ 100 compatProjected
220.4 pts
~2.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 6017, 5932, 7421
Auto
40.9 19%
Teleop
122.9 57%
Endgame
52.2 24%
Strengths
- · 6017 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 38%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5887, 5959, 3480
62
/ 100 compatProjected
109.2 pts
~0.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 5887, 5959, 3480
Auto
21.6 21%
Teleop
48.8 47%
Endgame
33.0 32%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 38%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.02 · Blue 0.66
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score220.4pts
Blue projected score109.2pts
Red win probability80%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 38%, blue 22%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 111.2
- Score range
- 89–240
- Upset likelihood
- 20%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
484.5Season APEX146.2
40.9Auto21.6
122.9Teleop48.8
52.2Endgame33
0Consistency37
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 59 | 25 |
| teleop | 115 | 59 |
| endgame | 74 | 26 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 248 | 115 |
Result
Final score
248 – 115
Prediction correct · off by 16.7 pts
Match videos
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