Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
362.27 – 109.78
96%4%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
310 – 92
Prediction correct · off by 35 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 679.8 ±11.2
Season APEX 247.7Event APEX 176.07Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 170.1Event APEX 13Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 262Event APEX 173.2Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307 ±16.2
Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 36.93Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Season APEX 221Event APEX 48.75Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 24.1Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3478, 6200, 4635
82
/ 100 compatProjected
362.3 pts
~2.3 RP (regional)
Teams: 3478, 6200, 4635
Auto
83.6 23%
Teleop
196.6 55%
Endgame
76.3 21%
Strengths
- · 3478 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 32%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3933, 6106, 3522
61
/ 100 compatProjected
109.8 pts
~0.3 RP (regional)
Teams: 3933, 6106, 3522
Auto
14.6 14%
Teleop
62.8 62%
Endgame
23.3 23%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 32%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.29 · Blue 0.34
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score362.3pts
Blue projected score109.8pts
Red win probability96%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 32%, blue 22%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 252.5
- Score range
- 91–381
- Upset likelihood
- 4%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
679.8Season APEX307
83.6Auto14.6
196.6Teleop62.8
76.3Endgame23.3
11Consistency43
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 49 | 32 |
| teleop | 190 | 34 |
| endgame | 66 | 11 |
| foul | 5 | 15 |
| total | 310 | 92 |
Result
Final score
310 – 92
Prediction correct · off by 35 pts
Match videos
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