Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
326.4 – 115.89
93%7%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
397 – 121
Prediction correct · off by 37.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 679.8 ±11.2
Season APEX 247.7Event APEX 165.81Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 262Event APEX 160.53Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 170.1Event APEX 0.06Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307 ±16.2
Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 39.6Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Season APEX 221Event APEX 50.36Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 25.93Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3478, 4635, 6200
82
/ 100 compatProjected
326.4 pts
~2.2 RP (regional)
Teams: 3478, 4635, 6200
Auto
76.1 24%
Teleop
177.5 55%
Endgame
67.4 21%
Strengths
- · 3478 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 32%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3933, 6106, 3522
68
/ 100 compatProjected
115.9 pts
~0.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 3933, 6106, 3522
Auto
25.4 24%
Teleop
55.0 51%
Endgame
26.5 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 32%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.24 · Blue 0.39
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score326.4pts
Blue projected score115.9pts
Red win probability93%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 32%, blue 22%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 210.5
- Score range
- 95–347
- Upset likelihood
- 7%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
679.8Season APEX307
76.1Auto25.4
177.5Teleop55
67.4Endgame26.5
0Consistency65
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 72 | 25 |
| teleop | 239 | 41 |
| endgame | 71 | 40 |
| foul | 15 | 15 |
| total | 397 | 121 |
Result
Final score
397 – 121
Prediction correct · off by 37.9 pts
Match videos
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